A beautiful timeline

Distance learning.

As the virus escalates around the world, the same patterns of response to the crisis and accompanying fallible human behaviour seem to be playing out over and over again.

I'm hearing from family and friends about life in Canada and the UK - it seems like the UK is about a week behind us (lockdown March 23 vs. March March 16 here in our county, March 19 for all of California) and Canada maybe a little further behind (schools closed March 17 but not in complete lockdown at the moment). Here is the typical pattern of response:

Social-distancing phase
Before the surge. Low numbers of cases, first few deaths. The country's politicians seem to think their country is immune to the problem or that they will try some novel method (e.g. the 'herd immunity approach').  Travel bans introduced to keep nasty foreigners out, but citizens of that country allowed to re-enter from all over the world with little or no testing at the borders.  Public gatherings limited to ever decreasing numbers. No restrictions on movement around country. Very little testing available. Parents both wanting but fearing school closures. Gung-ho 'keep calm and carry on' attitude prevails.

- the 'elbola' becomes a popular greeting (my parents received a round of applause in a cafe for elbola-ing friends as they met for coffee).

-  Mildly pleading emails arrive from big businesses explaining how it is still safe to use their services e.g. movie theatres and restaurants seating people 6ft apart and doing a deep clean each night.

- Sad pleading emails arrive from small businesses asking that we continue to support them through this crisis.

- Panic shopping phase 1: the toilet paper rush.

Toilet paper guard posted at Waitrose, Cambridge, UK March 23, 2020

-  Can only be tested for COVID-19 if you have recently travelled to China, South Korea, Iran, Italy, or have had close contact with a confirmed case, or you are Tom Hanks or have recently smooched Tom Hanks.

- Greta Thunberg and the environment still occasionally in the news.

- 'Happy Birthday' is the hand-washing song.

- 'Contagion' trending on Netflix.

- People blithely ignore social-distancing rules.


Lockdown phase
Deaths start to surge. Governments perform dramatic U-turn in COVID-19 response but realize they don't have the capacity to emulate a South Korea type response (maintains personal freedoms through advanced tracking and blanket testing) or the will to go the China route (personal freedoms be damned). Instead, governments begin a gradual saunter down the road that will, I fear, inevitably have to result in a Wuhan-style response. Meanwhile the virus spreads wildly in communities, particularly in cities with highly mobile, dense, sociable populations and excellent public transport. Fortunately 'caremongering', volunteerism and finding ways to be alone together prevail, as well as the heartbreaking heroism of medical personnel. Other events typical of this phase:

- Panic shop phase 2: potatoes, onions, ramen, eggs, and flour sell out

- Online food ordering system crashes.

- Confusion over what counts as an essential service. Locally here in the Bay Area, the bird food shop is open, but I was reassured to see that gun shops have been ordered closed.

- Escalating circulation of humorous youtube videos about erratic behaviour of women under lockdown.

- Zoom stocks trading near all time high.

- Conditions to qualify for COVID-19 testing as above but expanded to include New York, politicians, all celebrities, and royalty. Also, I've heard that in the UK you can pay £200 to be tested privately.

-  Chorus to 'Staying Alive' makes a great hand-washing song.

- 'Outbreak' trending on Netflix.

- Politicians appeal for good citizenship: 'Enough is enough, go home and stay home' says Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. If your leader happens to be a nutjob, watching PM Trudeau's daily address is particularly calming, especially if you listen to it in French. 

- People continue to blithely ignore rules.

Right now, it is too soon to tell if California's early shelter-in-place (as compared to e.g. Italy or New York) has slowed the spread of the virus. There is a sense that the progression to drastic is inevitable. Gradually the containment measures are becoming more stringent with parks and beaches closed, police being given more power to enforce the orders. Meanwhile, Canada seems to be quietly optimistic that they can beat this thing, I hope so. 

I find myself getting frustrated by all the failings of those in charge, trying to find holes in the plans, disappointed by the lack of a coordinated global response. But really I should be focusing on the good things that are happening and accept that perhaps science and isms (socialism, communism, capitalism) are currently not equipped to provide a global solution to a pandemic. 

Meanwhile, apparently we are all supposed to be back to normal by Easter, said Trump on Tuesday. Why Easter? "I thought it was a beautiful time. A beautiful timeline," he said. 

 I noticed on a new online food shopping site I've  signed up for easter egg decorating kits are sold out! Maybe we'll have 'a beautiful time' together. Or maybe it will be alone, together. 

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COVID-19 news from round here:

School closure now extended through May 1, 2020 (was originally April 6). 

I went to a medical appointment earlier this week. As I drove out of the parking lot I saw 'No photography, no video' signs tied to all the trees, and then saw 'Drive-through COVID-19 testing site' signs. In the back corner of the parking lot were some tents, cones, and gowned/visored personnel. All completely empty. I took a surreptitious photo.

Empty drive-through testing site in Menlo Park, March 24, 2020.

Santa Clara County (Population 1.9 million) - Deaths from COVID-19