Skill or chance?

We have been playing more board and card games that usual. The kids still love to play games ruled by chance such as Sorry!, Beggar-my-neighbour, Monopoly. Mr Husband, however, prefers games of skill and has been pushing for a switch to Jump Drive, Arboretum, Citadels. Back in Canada he would often go out to the local pub with his manfriends and play games until late into the night.  Consequently, we have amassed a collection of complicated grown-up games requiring skill and strategy. The kids will sometimes play these games if they are in the mood but mostly they are still drawn to chance. 

I think this is because chance levels the playing field and gives the kids the chance to win.

Over the last week we've actually been reading the rules to games like Monopoly and Sorry! and it turns out that there are ways to play these games that mix skill and chance.

Last night we played Sorry!, first the usual way where all players draw cards and move. I had to leave the game at the start to take a call but asked ThingTwo to keep playing for me. By the time I came back to the game I had won! I'd like to attribute that to my telekinetic skill, but no, I just got lucky.

The second time we tried the 'adult' version in the instructions. All players are dealt a hand of five cards and can choose which card to play. They then replace the card in their deck. Now it becomes a game of skill and chance. Mr H was happier.

An interesting moment came when ThingTwo played a card and made her move, getting one piece home. But Mr H just couldn't let it sit. He explained to her what the better move would be, how she could move two pieces to better her advantage. He really wanted her to change her move but she baulked and wanted to play her way. She said, "I get to make my own decisions!" 

You can see where I'm going with this.

Is a pandemic a game of skill or a game of chance? Does it level the playing field? At one extreme, if we all just went about our business yes, the virus doesn't respect economic status, race, religion, borders. Getting infected would be a game of chance. At another extreme, the success of the intensive tracking and testing in Singapore would indicate that strategic interventions built on past experience do seem to control the spread of the virus. 

I'm probably carrying the analogy too far, but playing this new game of Sorry! seems to mirror what is going on in pandemic-life. Introducing skill and experience into the game clearly favoured the more skilled and experienced player. You can draw an analogy to Singapore's tracking and testing vs. Italy's initially slow response or the UK's early 'herd immunity' strategy. Also, ThingTwo's protest showed individuals want to exert their freedom to behave as they deem best, operating with either (or both!) a false sense of security about their own level of skill or a strong opposition to being told what to do  - Florida spring-break beach parties come to mind. Finally, Mr H had an ethical decision in deciding how to act. It was better for him to ignore the missteps of ThingTwo's move, but he could also choose to highlight it and try and make it a 'teachable moment'. 

Here the analogy really does break down because clearly in the pandemic situation getting everyone to adhere to your strategy is both in your own interest and increases the chance of survival for all. 

Hang on, maybe the analogy doesn't break down. This apparent insider trading by Senators who are members of the Senate Intelligence Committee is an analogous ethical decision. A number of senators are being investigated because they appear to have acted on inside information and sold off stocks in anticipation of a crash. People in possession of inside information e.g. Directors and board members of companies are required by the SEC to give 30 days notice of investment actions. What is most alarming, but not entirely surprising, is that he Trump administration appears to have made a U-turn in its messaging and COVID-19 strategy right around the 30 day mark following some of the early Senate Intelligence Committee meetings about COVID-19. 

It is one thing to stockpile 17000 bottle of hand sanitizer. It is another for publicly elected officials to try and make a quick buck on the lives of their constituents. 

So far, 'Pandemic!' seems to be a disconcerting game that mixes strategy and chance amid a dynamic landscape of unknowns. Bad luck in terms of catching the virus if you are a healthcare worker, first responder, dentist, teacher, over fifty, male. Bad luck in terms of job security if you are a restaurant worker, dental assistant, hairdresser, cleaner. And for those staying home as much as possible, there is still quite a lot left to chance such as safely getting medical care for non COVID-19 related illnesses, and getting food and package delivery.

I think dentists stand out as a stark example of how this pandemic has exposed unexpected vulnerabilities. That joke about 'My kid can be any kind of doctor she wants' kind of applies to dentists as well. A respected and profitable profession that is now in trouble. The kids' dentist and orthodontist have cancelled all appointments indefinitely. We just learned that our niece in the UK was laid off last week due to COVID-19 - she works in a company that manufactures orthodontic appliances. 

ThingTwo didn't win that game of Sorry! It was Mr H. 

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